Superan la encuesta Casen: Los verdaderos números de la pobreza en Chile
La última encuesta Casen reveló un aumento de la pobreza de 13,7 a 15,1 por ciento entre 2006 y 2009. Según los especialistas, estas cifras que escandalizaron podrían haber sido mayores y responden al aumento del desempleo y el encarecimiento de lo alimentos, factor que cambió la línea de la pobreza y que debería afectar en la determinación del Ingreso Ético Familiar y en futuras mediciones que, de acuerdo al propio ministro de Hacienda, en un estudio del 2008, arrojarían que en Chile hay más de cuatro millones de pobres si se realizaran correctamente.
Una verdadera batahola política se armó luego que, desde La Moneda, el Gobierno asestara un golpe en el corazón de la popularidad de la ex Presidenta Michelle Bachelet, al anunciar que los resultados de la última encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (Casen) revelaron que entre el 2006 y el 2009, justo durante la anterior administración, la pobreza en Chile aumentó de un 13,7 por ciento a un 15,1 por ciento, con lo que 355.509 personas pasaron a engrosar la lista de pobres en el país, que ya llega a los 2.564.032.
Las dolorosas cifras también dan cuenta del incremento en la indigencia en 117.591, llegando a un total de 634.329 personas viviendo en condiciones de extrema pobreza.
Pero lo que sacó ronchas en la oposición fueron las alusiones del mandatario a que el quiebre en la disminución sostenida de la pobreza que había experimentado el país desde 1990 al 2006, pasando de un 39 a un 13,7 por ciento, se produjo justamente durante el gobierno anterior, cuyo énfasis fue el aumento del gasto público a un 35 por ciento del Presupuesto para solventar programas sociales.
Pero para Hernán Frigolet, economista y profesor de la Universidad Academia de Humanismo Cristiano, las cifras de pobreza que arrojó la encuesta Casen del 2009 deberían haber sido mayores debido a dos factores: “por la recesión que tuvimos desde septiembre del 2008 hasta fines del año pasado, y que generó un aumento bastante notable en el desempleo, y eso obviamente iba a ir apareado de la disminución de los ingresos de los hogares, y siempre son los más pobres lo que se llevan el mayor peso y, por otro lado, por el encarecimiento del valor de los alimentos”.
Según explicó el economista en el programa Radio Análisis de Radio Universidad de Chile, los índices deberían haber llegado a un 17 por ciento aproximadamente, pero “hay un conjunto de políticas que se aplicaron durante el periodo 2006-2009 que probablemente tuvieron un efecto en que al momento de medir la pobreza no fuera tan catastrófica”.
Cambio en la línea de la pobreza
Pero lo cierto es que más allá de los dimes y diretes políticos, las cifras de la pobreza hablan de personas y datos que determinan en gran medida las políticas públicas de los países y que, en el caso de la encuesta Casen, son altamente cuestionadas en su asertividad y capacidad de mostrar la realidad.
Según Frigolet, el aumento del costo de la canasta básica de alimentos, es “el dato más potente de esta Casen, pues el valor de la línea de la pobreza subió de 47.100 pesos a 64.200 pesos”.
La relevancia de este dato radica en que la línea de la pobreza se calcula considerando una canasta básica de alimentos, cuya ingesta evitaría la desnutrición. El ingreso familiar se divide en la cantidad de integrantes, cuyo promedio nacional es de 4,4 personas, si el resultado arroja que cada uno puede costear el valor de una canasta, entonces se trata de personas de situación de indigencia. Si el ingreso per cápita alcanza para dos canastas, están en condición de pobreza. Y entre el 2006 y el 2009 el valor de los alimentos en Chile sufrió tal incremento que el costo de la canasta subió de los 23.550 a los 32.100 pesos. Cifras que también explican que 355.509 chilenos y chilenas hayan visto afectada su situación socioeconómica en estos años.
Pero el aumento en “valor” asignado a la línea de la pobreza debiera impulsar además una discusión más seria sobre la metodología que se aplica, el salario mínimo y el monto del ingreso ético que el Gobierno busca implementar y con el que reiteró su compromiso el Presidente.
Bajo estos preceptos, el recientemente aprobado salario mínimo estaría condenando a la indigencia a las familias de los 700 mil trabajadores que reciben este sueldo. Basta dividir los 172 mil pesos establecidos en 4,4 integrantes (considerando un solo ingreso familiar), y da 39.091 pesos per cápita mensual, es decir, lo que la Casen estipula como extrema pobreza.
Una de las soluciones que planteó Piñera el martes para terminar con la pobreza, el Ingreso Ético Familiar, que comenzaría a regir en marzo del próximo año y que, según dijo el Presidente, “a través de diversas transferencias, va a suplementar los ingresos propios de cada una de las familias que viven en pobreza y las familias de clase media vulnerable, para permitirles superar su condición de pobreza o evitar caer en la misma”, también se quedaría corto si se mantiene el monto entregado en el discurso del 21 de mayo, de 250 mil pesos. Nuevamente el cálculo es simple y el resultado es de 56.818 pesos per cápita, menos que la actual línea de la pobreza.
Ministro de Hacienda: Más de cuatro millones de pobres
Y el problema no se termina ahí. Son numerosas las críticas metodológicas que se le hacen a la encuesta Casen y que, según los expertos, de corregirse estas falencias, los índices subirían como la espuma.
Incluso el actual ministro de Hacienda lo tiene claro. Un estudio de Felipe Larraín cuando era director de la Fundación para la Superación de la Pobreza, realizado a comienzos de 2008, concluyó que si en 2006 se hubiera actualizado la línea de la pobreza considerando índices actuales, en ese entonces hubiera habido en Chile cuatro millones de personas en esta situación.
“La canasta actualmente vigente se elaboró en base a los patrones de consumo de los hogares del Gran Santiago en los años 1987-1988, en circunstancias que desde entonces han ocurrido muchos cambios económicos, demográficos y sociales que hacen necesaria una actualización de la línea de pobreza. Para ello, se cuenta con la información de la V Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares, realizada entre 1996 y 1997. En base a ello, este artículo rehace los cálculos y determina que la pobreza afectaba todavía al 29% de la población en 2006, es decir, más del doble de la cifra oficial”, señala el estudio del actual secretario de Estado.
Hernán Frigolet agrega otro factor a la discusión. “No tenemos una canasta de pobreza. Esta es una canasta de alimentos que se multiplica por un factor mágico, que no hay fundamentos de dónde salió. Pero lo que hay que determinar cuáles son los bienes adicionales en términos de vestuario, hay muchos de los servicios que a fines de los 80 ni siquiera estaban, como Internet, celulares, la red de transporte es muy distinta, hay un montón de fenómenos que han cambiado. Lo que tenemos que saber es qué servicios tengo que pagar, qué bienes tengo que consumir para que consideren que un hogar no es pobre. Y los llamados ahí son el Mideplan, que maneja la encuesta Casen, y el INE que fija la canasta del IPC”.
La línea de la pobreza actual tampoco considera el acceso a bienes culturales, a educación o a ocio de las personas, actividades fundamentales en la calidad de vida y, según los organismos internacionales, también es esencial a la hora de medir la pobreza, que no se limita a los recursos materiales sino en el acceso a derechos sociales, económicos y culturales.
De hecho, la Cepal informó que durante el segundo trimestre del 2010 cambiaría la medición de la pobreza en los países de América Latina, incluido el nuestro, considerando la nueva estructura del consumo. En tanto, el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD) informó que reemplazará la medición de la pobreza por un índice multidimensional para cerca de cien países. ¿Qué resultados arrojará Chile en estas mediciones?
El panorama no es alentador, pues con todas sus deficiencias, la Casen además se realizó durante el 2009, es decir, no midió los devastadores efectos del terremoto que afectó a una zona donde reside el ochenta por ciento de la población nacional.
Si bien existen múltiples definiciones de pobreza, de acuerdo al tipo de indicadores que se consideren, el PNUD la define como a “la falta de oportunidad de vivir una vida larga, sana y creativa y disfrutar de un nivel decente de vida, libertad, dignidad, respeto por sí mismo y de los demás”. En estas paupérrimas condiciones están más de dos millones y medio de chilenos, en momentos en que el país se empeña en alcanzar el desarrollo y el Presidente asegura que pondrá fin a este flagelo, pero todo indica que son muchísimos más.
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